IN LESS THAN a month from now Singapore will host the 13th Asean Summit, the highest-level meeting in the annual calendar of the 10-member grouping.
The meeting will be significant as the grouping is celebrating its 40th anniversary this year and for the first time in its history, the leaders are set to sign a landmark charter that will give it a legal identity.
Last month, Singapore spelled out the main agenda for the summit, themed “One Asean At The Heart Of Dynamic Asia”, which will be held on November 20. Foreign Minister George Yeo said the issues included energy, environment, climate change and sustainable development.
The leaders are also expected to endorse a blueprint with clear roadmaps for establishing the Asean Economic Community by 2015, a vision to turn the region into a single market and production base.
Events least expected have, however, unfolded in one of Asean’s members, Myanmar, the maverick junta-ruled country that has time and again proven to be a headache for the regional grouping.
The recent violent crackdown by the junta troops on pro-democracy protesters, which resulted in 10 deaths according to official figures, sparked international outrage and put Asean in an awkward position.
On the one hand, Asean is facing mounting calls for it to take action against the country, including expulsion from the grouping, and on the other, it has to see to its interest that Myanmar remains a member.
The key consideration, said Foreign Minister Yeo, was to help the process of national reconciliation, not make it more difficult.
“Some external pressure can be helpful. But, as Malaysia’s Foreign Minister (Datuk Seri) Syed Hamid (Albar) said recently, talking about sanctions or expulsion now would make national reconciliation harder, not easier to achieve,” he said.
The military should also be involved in the national reconciliation process because without them, Myanmar could dissolve into civil war, said Yeo.
“The country has many ethnic groups, a number of which are still armed and can easily restart rebellions in the border regions. The last thing we want is a Yugoslavia or an Iraqi situation at our doorstep,” Yeo told the Parliament on Monday.
Myanmar on its own would become an isolated buffer state sandwiched between China and India, “each of which eyes the other very carefully”, he said.
“India is very concerned to maintain its links with Myanmar because it sees China having influence over Myanmar. And if there is civil strife there, I believe both would be forced to take bets in their own self defence.
“If Myanmar is divided, and there is external interference by the big powers, then we’ll be dragged in. It won’t be in our interest for Myanmar to be balkanised,” he had said.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also said recently that it would be better for Myanmar to remain in the family of Asean with the grouping continuing to engage it.
Tougher actions such as sanctions against a regime that is ready to isolate itself were more likely to be counter-productive than effective, he said.
Earlier this week, at the Singapore Parliament sitting, members of the house raised a dozen questions over Myanmar; among them whether Asean can take bolder steps to press for a peaceful resolution to the problems in the country.
Others shot questions on Singapore’s stand on continuing trade and investment in Myanmar, and on calls to use economic sanctions against the country.
The island state is one of the largest investors in Myanmar but according to Yeo, Singapore companies’ cumulative total direct investments in Myanmar for the year ending 2005 were only S$742 million.
“Overall, our total trade with Myanmar last year was S$1 billion, which represents only 0.1 per cent of Singapore’s total trade. Myanmar ranked 50th among our trading partners,” he said.
Severap MPs also asked if Asean would consider putting more pressure on the Myanmar government, such as sanctions, or withdrawal of aid, or even a review of Myanmar’s Asean membership.
Another member of Parliament asked if Asean’s credibility was at stake with Myanmar expected to sign the Asean Charter, and “should we not ask Myanmar to stay home until they can shape up and come to Singapore to sign the Asean Charter?”
Yeo said: “These are only bad alternatives. Let us say we decide to ostracise Myanmar, to dis-invite them, if we could, from the summit. Then what happens?”
Myanmar would then become an isolated buffer state sandwiched between China and India, said Yeo.
“If we in Asean boycott Myanmar, we would lose our moral influence which is not insignificant. Such an approach would only worsen the long-term position for us. In any case, the preference of all the Asean countries is to continue engaging Myanmar and keeping it in the family.
“This is certainly Singapore’s preference”, he said. [Published in Bernama, Oct 24, 2007]
